6th July 2021

Adaptation

Image by Greg Jurgajtis

Ambition

Our plenary talks all address the topic of Adaptation. The afternoon parallel sessions include themes that range from fundamental scientific insights and break-throughs to highly applied, user-facing applications. We aim to create dialogue across the spectrum of activity which helps to strengthen the science,  improve communication between our research activities and assist with the translation into applications. The collective aim is to provide us all with an opportunity to discuss and update each other on the latest developments from right across our discipline and share our science and its application.

Agenda

Breakout Rooms

Room One - Climate

Chair: James Keeble

10.30am BST

State of the UK Climate 2020

Mike Kendon, Climate Information Scientist, Met Office, National Climate Information Centre

 

10.50am BST

Has the Risk of a 1976 North-West European Summer Drought and Heatwave Event Increased Since the 1970s Due to Climate Change?

Dr Laura Baker, Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading

11.10am BST

Characterising and Quantifying the UK Climate Change Commitment over the 21st Century

Chris Smith, Research Fellow, University of Leeds

11.30am BST

The Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Monsoons

Andrew Turner

Room Two - Air Quality and Composition

Chair: Fiona O'Connor

10.30am BST

The Impact of Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios on Air Pollutants and Climate: The Potential for Co-Benefits

Dr Steven Turnock, Senior Scientist, Met Office Hadley Centre

10.50am BST

The Role of Aerosol Process Representation in Uncertainty in the North Atlantic Region in CMIP6

Dr Laura Wilcox, Associate Professor, NCAS, University of Reading

11.10am BST

Quantifying Air Quality Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies

Dr Maria Val Martin, UKRI Future Leaders Fellow, University of Sheffield

11.30am BST

The Refinement of an Ensemble of Volcanic Ash Forecasts using Satellite Retrievals

Dr Antonio Capponi, Senior Research Associate, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University

Room Three - Weather

Chair: Rebecca Emerton

10.30am BST

IMPROVER – Probabilistic Post-Processing of Today’s Numerical Weather Prediction Systems

Ken Mylne, Head of Verification, Impacts and Post-Processing, 
Met Office

10.50am BST

Using Co-Production to Improve the Appropriate Use of Sub-Seasonal Forecasts in Africa

Dr Linda Hirons, Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading

11.10am BST

Satellite-Based Nowcasting of West African Storms

Ralph Burton, Research Scientist, NCAS

 

11.30am BST

Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on United Kingdom Mortality

Prof Andrew Charlton-Perez, Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading

Afternoon Keynote Plenary

Chair: Dr Claire Ryder, University of Reading

13.00pm BST

The Language of Risk: Optimizing Choices to Build Effective Climate Resilience

Dr Tom Philp, Chief Executive Officer, Maximum Information

13.30pm BST

Forecasting Impactful Flooding from Tropical Cyclones to Support Humanitarian Operations

Dr Linda Speight, Researcher in Applied Flood Forecasting, University of Reading

14.00pm BST

Climate Change Adaptation in Disasters and Conflict: What is Happening and Where?

Professor Erin Coughlan de Perez, Dignitas Associate Professor, Tufts University and Senior Advisor, Red Cross Red Crescent Advisor

14.30pm BST

Beyond Limit Values - The Need to Rethink our Air Pollution Policies

Dr Gary Fuller, Senior Lecturer in Air Quality Measurement, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London

Short Talks in Parallel Sessions 

15.00pm - 16.30pm BST

Mid-Latitude Dynamics 2


Chaired by: Sue Gray Geopotential Jet Regimes - A Hybrid Approach to Understanding Euro-Atlantic Non-Linearity Josh Dorrington, PhD Researcher, University of Oxford Northern Hemisphere Blocking Simulation in HadGEM3-GC4 Compared to the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 Multi-Model Ensembles
Reinhard Schiemann

Contrasting Dynamics of Short and Long Atmospheric Blocks Tim Woollings, Professor, University of Oxford Tor Bergeron and the Birth of Synoptic Analysis: Air-Mass Analysis and Antecedents to the Shapiro–Keyser Cyclone Model Prof David M. Schultz, Professor of Synoptic Meteorology, Centre for Atmospheric Science, and Centre for Crisis Studies and Mitigation, University of Manchester The Life Cycle of Meridional Heat Flux Peaks Andrea Marcheggiani, PhD Student, University of Reading




Tropical Meteorology 2


Chaired by: Robin Chadwick How Interactions Between Tropical Depressions and Western Disturbances Affect Heavy Precipitation in South Asia
Kieran M Hunt, Senior Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading Indian Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models Akshay Deoras, PhD Student, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Patterns of 2016 Indian Monsoon Convection in the Met Office Unified Model and Ground Weather Radar Observations
Alex Doyle, PhD Candidate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Effect of Moisture and Evaporation-Wind Feedback on the Dispersive Characteristics of Madden Julian Oscillation
Kartheek Mamidi, PhD Student, Dept of Physics, Central University of Kerala




Extremes 2


Chaired by: Dann Mitchell Temperature-Related Health Risk in the UK Katty Huang, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Reading; University College London Downscaling ERA5 to Indoor Temperatures in Ghana Chloe Brimicombe, Environmental Climate Science PhD Researcher, University of Reading Evaluation of Seasonal Variations of Selected Indices of Human Thermal Comfort in Nigeria Mojisola O. Adeniyi, Lecturer, University of Ibadan and Muyiwa P. Aajakaiye, Lecturer and PhD Student, Anchor University, Lagos Social Sensing of Heatwaves James C. Young, Research Associate, University of Exeter The Winter UHI – A Protective Effect? Impacts of the UHI and Urban Heat Mitigation on Health for Present and Future Climate in a European City
Dr Helen Macintyre, Senior Environmental and Public Health Scientist, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham A Novel Way to Monitor Heatwave Deaths Dr Eunice Lo, Research Associate, University of Bristol Future Changes in High-Impact Events in Convection-Permitting Projections
Prof Lizzie Kendon, Met Office Hadley Centre and Bristol University




Earth System and Forecast Modelling Tools


The Reason I Am Switching from Vector to Scalar Averaging for Surface Wind Data David Hooper, NCAS Instrument Scientist, NCAS NCAS Computational Modelling Services Grenville Lister Jupyter Notebooks on JASMIN - The JASMIN Notebook Service Ag Stephens, Head of Partnerships, CEDA, NCAS / STFC / CEDA Arrivals Service - Working with Other NERC Data Centres to Share the Load
Samuel Pepler Preparing the UKCA Composition Model for Exascale Supercomputing Applications
Luke Abraham Assessing the Quality of State-of-the-Art Regional Climate Information: The Case of the UK Climate Projections 2018
Dr Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Research Fellow, Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy




The Role of Aerosols in Weather and Climate


Chaired by: Laura Wilcox The Role of Aerosol Forcing for Recent Historical Pacific Decadal Variability Dr Andrea Dittus, Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading What Controls the Historical Timeseries of Shortwave Fluxes in the North Atlantic? Daniel Grosvenor, NCAS Research Fellow, NCAS, University of Leeds Extreme Dust Weather over East Asia: Insights from the CAMS Reanalysis and High-Resolution Modeling Dhirendra Kumar, Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading How Does Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Drive a Strengthening of the AMOC in CMIP6 Historical Simulations?
Dr Jon Robson, Principal Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading The Red Sky: Investigating the Hurricane Ophelia Saharan Dust and Biomass Burning Aerosol Event
Dr Kevin P. Wyche, Research Centre Director, Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Brighton Is Anthropogenic Global Warming Accelerating?
Stuart Jenkins, PhD Researcher, AOPP, Dept. of Physics, University of Oxford Evaluation of UKESM1’s Sulphur Cycle
Dr Catherine Hardacre, Scientist, Met Office




Urban Air Quality


Chaired by: Maggie Marvin Organic Emissions from Solid Fuel Combustion Sources in Delhi, India Gareth Stewart, Support Engineer, FAAM Air Quality in Vietnam: Overview and Key Findings from the 2-Cities Project David Oram In Situ Ozone Production is Highly Sensitive to Volatile Organic Compounds in the Indian Megacity of Delhi Beth Nelson, PhD Student, University of York Observations of Volatile Organic Compounds in Vietnamese Cities Jim Hopkins, Experimental Officer, NCAS, WACL, University of York Source Apportionment of Particulate Matter using One Year of Hourly Trace Metal Data at an Urban Background Site in London
Anja H. Tremper, Research Fellow, Imperial College London




Tropical Cyclones


Chaired by: Juliane Schwendike Relationships Between Equatorial Waves and TC Activity in the West Pacific Xiangbo Feng, Research Scientist, NCAS Increasing Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Potential Intensity in the Subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an Ocean Heat Content Perspective 1955 - 2019 Samantha Hallam, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Irish Climate Analysis Research Unit, Maynooth University, Ireland The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Potential Offshore Wind Farms in Mexico Dr Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, Research Scientist, NCAS, University of Reading Analysis of Tropical Low Pressure Systems that Made Landfall in Mozambique Between 1960 and 2020: Their Total Number and Respective Affected Areas Hélio Vasco Nganhane, Teacher, Pungue University, Mozambique Tropical Cyclones in Future HighResMIP Experiments : Explaining and Reconciling Projections
Benoit Vanniere The Reason for the Observed Increase in Hurricane and Named Storm Activity
Conor McMenemie, Lead Researcher, NiCE Research




Atmospheric Composition: Ozone and Methane


Chaired by: Shona Wilde Monthly Estimation of Ozone Monitoring Instrument-Aerosol Index (OMI-AI) from Meteorological Data in Southern Nigeria Mukhtar Abubakar Balarabe, Lecturer, Department of Physics, Umaru Musa Yar`adua University, Katsina. Katsina state, Nigeria An Assessment of the Airborne Performance of two UV Ozone Photometers Onboard the FAAM Airborne Laboratory Jake Vallow, Assistant Core Chemistry Technician at the FAAM Airborne Laboratory, NCAS Sensitivity of Ozone Production in the UK to VOC and NOx Levels Michael Sanderson, Senior Scientist, Met Office Identifying Sources for Methane Mitigation using Mobile Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Flux and Isotope Measurements
Dr Rebecca Fisher, Lecturer, Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London Tropospheric Ozone in the North Atlantic: Comparison of UM-UKCA and Remote Sensing Observations for 2005-2018
Dr Maria Russo, Research Associate, NCAS, University of Cambridge Understanding Formaldehyde and Glyoxal for New Satellite Measurements
Mark Blitz




Boundary Layer and Turbulence


Chaired by: Andrew Ross LES Simulations to Model the Air Flow Regimes in Urban Canyon using OpenFoam Peri Subrahmanya Hari Prasad, PhD (pursuing), Dept of CORAL, IIT Kharagpur,Kharagpur,India Variability in the Short-Range Dispersion of Passive, Short-Duration Emissions Dr Paul Hayden, EnFlo Lab Manger and AMOF Instrument Scientist, University of Surrey Using Series Basis Functions with the Complex Variable Boundary Element Method
Bryce D. Wilkins, Graduate Student, Carnegie Mellon University An Evaluation of the 2020 Upgrades to the NCAS-AMOF Boundary Layer Mobile UHF Radar Wind Profiler
Dr Emily Grace Norton, AMOF Instrument Scientist, AMOF-NCAS University of Manchester Modelling Chemistry and Transport in Urban Street Canyons: Comparing Offline Multi-Box Models with Large-Eddy Simulation
Yuqing Dai, PhD Student, University of Birmingham




Risks and Hazards


Chaired by: Stephen Mobbs Calculating and Communicating Ensemble-Based Volcanic Ash Risk for Aviation Dr Natalie Harvey, Research Scientist, University of Reading Rainfall Rescue: Improving Understanding of UK Rainfall Related Risks with Citizen Scientist Volunteers
Prof Ed Hawkins, NCAS, University of Reading Plastics in the Atmosphere – Lessons from Public Health and Covid-19 on the Perception and Communication of Risk Prof Mary E Black, Non Executive Director, NCAS and St Andrews University Climatology of Lightning Strikes in Germany from 2009 - 2020 Lauren Rootham Sensitivity Analysis of Hazard Impact Model Vulnerability Inputs
Dr Faye Wyatt, Senior Weather Impact Scientist, Met Office




Stratospheric Processes 2


Chaired by: Neal Butchart A Minimal Model for Predictability from the Stratosphere Prof Andrew Charlton-Perez, Prof. of Meteorology, University of Reading Interactions Between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation On Multiple Timescales Oscar Dimdore-Miles, PhD Student, University of Oxford Regime Behavior in the Upper Stratosphere as a Precursor of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Northern Winter
Dr Hua Lu, Research Scientist, British Antarctic Survey Stratospheric Response to Natural Forcings and Varying Tropospheric Aerosol Levels
Beatriz Monge-Sanz Arctic Ozone Depletion in 2019/20: Roles of Chemistry, Dynamics and the Montreal Protocol
Dr Wuhu Feng, NCAS Scientist, NCAS, University of Leeds





Image by Greg Jurgajtis